Estimating the introduction time of highly pathogenic avian influenza into poultry flocks.

The estimation of farm-specific time windows for the introduction of highly-pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus can be used to increase the efficiency of disease control measures such as contact tracing and may help to identify risk factors for virus introduction. The aims of this research are to (1) develop and test an accurate approach for estimating farm-specific virus introduction windows and (2) evaluate this approach by applying it to 11 outbreaks of HPAI (H5N8) on Dutch commercial poultry farms during the years 2014 and 2016. We used a stochastic simulation model with susceptible, infectious and recovered/removed disease stages to generate distributions for the period from virus introduction to detection. The model was parameterized using data from the literature, except for the within-flock transmission rate, which was estimated from disease-induced mortality data using two newly developed methods that describe HPAI outbreaks using either a deterministic model (A) or a stochastic approach (B). Model testing using simulated outbreaks showed that both method A and B performed well. Application to field data showed that method A could be successfully applied to 8 out of 11 HPAI H5N8 outbreaks and is the most generally applicable one, when data on disease-induced mortality is scarce.

The burden of hospitalisation for varicella and herpes zoster in England from 2004 to 2013.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determine the hospital burden of varicella-zoster virus infection (VZV) in England during 2004-2013 to support a future cost-effectiveness analysis of a childhood varicella vaccination programme. METHODS: We analysed the incidence, duration, outcome and costs of hospitalisations for VZV using the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) database for the general and immunocompetent population. Mortality in HES was validated using data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). RESULTS: The average annual incidences of admissions due to varicella and herpes zoster were 7.6 (7.3-7.9) and 8.8 (8.6-9.0) per 100,000, respectively. The immunocompetent population accounted for 93% and 82% of the admissions due to varicella and herpes zoster, respectively. The average yearly number of hospital days was 10,748 (10,227-11,234) for varicella and 41,780 (40,257-43,287) for herpes zoster. The average yearly hospital costs (£2013/14) were £6.8 million (6.4-7.2) for varicella and £13.0 million (12.8-13.4) for herpes zoster. The average annual numbers of deaths identified in HES due to varicella and herpes zoster were 18.5 (14.3-22.8) and 160 (147-172), respectively. Comparison with ONS mortality data indicated a high level of uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS: Most of the hospital burden due to VZV-virus in England occurs in the immunocompetent population and is potentially vaccine-preventable.

The emergence of resistance to fungicides.

Many studies exist about the selection phase of fungicide resistance evolution, where a resistant strain is present in a pathogen population and is differentially selected for by the application of fungicides. The emergence phase of the evolution of fungicide resistance--where the resistant strain is not present in the population and has to arise through mutation and subsequently invade the population--has not been studied to date. Here, we derive a model which describes the emergence of resistance in pathogen populations of crops. There are several important examples where a single mutation, affecting binding of a fungicide with the target protein, shifts the sensitivity phenotype of the resistant strain to such an extent that it cannot be controlled effectively ('qualitative' or 'single-step' resistance). The model was parameterized for this scenario for Mycosphaerella graminicola on winter wheat and used to evaluate the effect of fungicide dose rate on the time to emergence of resistance for a range of mutation probabilities, fitness costs of resistance and sensitivity levels of the resistant strain. We also evaluated the usefulness of mixing two fungicides of differing modes of action for delaying the emergence of resistance. The results suggest that it is unlikely that a resistant strain will already have emerged when a fungicide with a new mode of action is introduced. Hence, 'anti-emergence' strategies should be identified and implemented. For all simulated scenarios, the median emergence time of a resistant strain was affected little by changing the dose rate applied, within the range of doses typically used on commercial crops. Mixing a single-site acting fungicide with a multi-site acting fungicide delayed the emergence of resistance to the single-site component. Combining the findings with previous work on the selection phase will enable us to develop more efficient anti-resistance strategies.

Modeling future conservation of Hawaiian honeycreepers by mosquito management and translocation of disease-tolerant Amakihi.

Avian malaria is an important cause of the decline of endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers. Because of the complexity of this disease system we used a computer model of avian malaria in forest birds to evaluate how two proposed conservation strategies: 1) reduction of habitat for mosquito larvae and 2) establishment of a low-elevation, malaria-tolerant honeycreeper (Hawaii Amakihi) to mid-elevation forests would affect native Hawaiian honeycreeper populations. We evaluated these approaches in mid-elevation forests, where malaria transmission is seasonal and control strategies are more likely to work. Our model suggests the potential benefit of larval habitat reduction depends on the level of malaria transmission, abundance of larval cavities, and the ability to substantially reduce these cavities. Permanent reduction in larval habitat of >80% may be needed to control abundance of infectious mosquitoes and benefit bird populations. Establishment of malaria-tolerant Amakihi in mid-elevation forests increases Amakihi abundance, creates a larger disease reservoir, and increases the abundance of infectious mosquitoes which may negatively impact other honeycreepers. For mid-elevation sites where bird populations are severely affected by avian malaria, malaria-tolerant Amakihi had little impact on other honeycreepers. Both management strategies may benefit native Hawaiian honeycreepers, but benefits depend on specific forest characteristics, the amount of reduction in larval habitat that can be achieved, and how malaria transmission is affected by temperature.

Do high levels of diffuse and chronic metal pollution in sediments of Rhine and Meuse floodplains affect structure and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems?

This paper (re)considers the question if chronic and diffuse heavy metal pollution (cadmium, copper, lead and zinc) affects the structure and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems of Biesbosch National Park, the floodplain area of rivers Meuse and Rhine. To reach this aim, we integrated the results of three projects on: 1. the origin, transfer and effects of heavy metals in a soil-plant-snail food chain; 2. the impact of bioavailability on effects of heavy metals on the structure and functioning of detritivorous communities; 3. the risk assessment of heavy metals for an herbivorous and a carnivorous small mammal food chain. Metal pollution levels of the Biesbosch floodplain soils are high. The bioavailability of metals in the soils is low, causing low metal levels in plant leaves. Despite this, metal concentrations in soil dwelling detritivores and in land snails at polluted locations are elevated in comparison to animals from 'non-polluted' reference sites. However, no adverse effects on ecosystem structure (species richness, density, biomass) and functioning (litter decomposition, leaf consumption, reproduction) have been found. Sediment metal pollution may pose a risk to the carnivorous small mammal food chain, in which earthworms with elevated metal concentrations are eaten by the common shrew. Additional measurements near an active metal smelter, however, show reduced leaf consumption rates and reduced reproduction by terrestrial snails, reflecting elevated metal bioavailability at this site. Since future management may also comprise reintroduction of tidal action in the Biesbosch area, changes in metal bioavailability, and as a consequence future ecosystem effects, cannot be excluded.

Metal accumulation in the earthworm Lumbricus rubellus. Model predictions compared to field data.

The mechanistic bioaccumulation model OMEGA (Optimal Modeling for Ecotoxicological Applications) is used to estimate accumulation of zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb) in the earthworm Lumbricus rubellus. Our validation to field accumulation data shows that the model accurately predicts internal cadmium concentrations. In addition, our results show that internal metal concentrations in the earthworm are less than linearly (slope<1) related to the total concentration in soil, while risk assessment procedures often assume the biota-soil accumulation factor (BSAF) to be constant. Although predicted internal concentrations of all metals are generally within a factor 5 compared to field data, incorporation of regulation in the model is necessary to improve predictability of the essential metals such as zinc and copper.